Halloween Market Week: Tricks or Treats?
$SPY, $AAPL, $FB
This is Halloween week and we have more earnings as 1,000+companies will report their Q-3 results and update their forward outlooks.
We also have a full slate of economic data, some of which will influence the 2nd edition of the September Quarter’s GDP reading while others will start to give us indications of the GDP reading for Q-4.
So far we have not seen any forecast from the Atlanta Fed’s Nowcast model for Q-4, but odds are it will once again start Bullish.
On tap economic data for this week, as follows:
- Monday will bring the September Personal Income and Spending report, one that will we will be watching closely to see if consumers continued to spend above wage gains.
- Tuesday has the October Consumer Confidence reading for October, and the recent stock market gyrations could take some wind out of the September confidence gains. As we gear into the holiday shopping season, we will be watching the expectations component for signs of any softening. Also, Tuesday, we have Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) latest event at which it is widely expected to unveil its latest iPad and Mac models.
- The ADP Employment Report for October as well as the Q-3 Y 2018 Employment cost Index reports will be had on Wednesday, and we expect them to receive more than a passing scrutiny given the growing scarcity of workers with needed skill sets and wage gains.
- Thursday we get the October auto and truck sales and we’ll be looking to see if those sales continue to resemble what we have seen in the housing market of late; fewer unit sales, but higher price tags. Also, in focus that day will be the October ISM Manufacturing Index, where we will be eyeing its order and backlog data as well as employment metrics. Rounding out Thursday, we get the September Construction Spending Report.
- Friday of the new month usually means it’s time for the employment report, and yes, we will be getting the October Employment report. While we expect many to be focused on the speed of job creation, analysts be digging into the qualitative factors of the jobs created and who is taking them as well as focusing on wage gains.
Next week’s earnings calendar, it is full of reports and once again Thursday will be the day with the heaviest flow with just under 400 companies on that day alone.
As we move through the week, analysts will collect data points from these various reports, adding to and updating our thematic investment picture along the way.