Home 2020 Gold Up Ahead of US NFPs Friday

Gold Up Ahead of US NFPs Friday

$XAU $GLD $XAG $SLV

Thursday, Gold prices rose for a 2nd day running as the momentum behind this week’s rally in risk assets faded ahead of the US NFPs report Friday.

By 11:10a EST (1610 GMT), gold futures for delivery on the COMEX exchange were up 0.3% at 1,567.15, while spot gold was up 0.4% at 1,563.38, both within their recent ranges.

That was despite a further rise in US Treasury yields and a q-month high for .DXY that tracks the Buck Vs a basket of developed market currencies. Both of those tend to weigh on the price of gold, which has no nominal return and is priced in USDs.

The combination of a strong Buck and high demand from US portfolio investors has eaten into demand from final users such as the jewelry sector in recent months. That means that portfolio investment is the Key factor sustaining gold prices at their current levels.

Data compiled by the World Gold Council (WGC) indicate that assets under management at ETFs backed by gold hit an all-time high last week, with net inflows of over $1.3-B the bulk of which came from Europe, as the fall in bond yields caused by fear of the coronavirus enhanced the attractiveness of gold.

The amount of global debt trading with negative yields is back above $14-T, with $5.8-T of that Eurozone government debt, Reuters reported earlier this week, citing Tradeweb data. That is the highest level since September.

The rush of safe-haven buying has likely reversed, with some further liquidations from the record stockpile of ETFs holdings and extended positioning not off the table,” analysts at Toronto Dominion Securities said in a research note Thursday. They added that with gold being a “crowded” trade for now, range-trading is to be expected in the near term, although “continue suppression of real rates across the globe will keep the gold bug alive in 2020.

Wednesday, 2 big emerging market central banks cut interest rates: Brazil and Thailand. But, the global trend towards monetary accommodation was bucked Thursday by the Czech National Bank, which unexpectedly raised its Key rate by 25 bpts.

Earlier, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde had warned the scope for further monetary support had been “much reduced” by previous easing, in what appeared to continue a subtle shift away from the stance of her predecessor Mario Draghi, who rarely acknowledged limits to the ECB’s firepower.

Elsewhere: silver futures rose 1.1% to 17.79 oz, while Platinum futures fell 2.1% to 966.85.

Have a terrific weekend

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Economist at Knightsbridge holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Crypto, Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.