Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) weakest levels in 6 weeks

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) weakest levels in 6 weeks

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) weakest levels in 6 weeks

Gold slipped further to the weakest levels in 6 weeks on Monday as the US and China appeared close to a deal on rolling back the trade tariffs imposed in late 2018. The Dollar gold price fell to $1287 per ounce – its cheapest since 25 January and more than 4% below mid-February’s 10-month high – as the US currency rallied and European stock markets followed Asian equities higher. 

The Dollar had earlier fallen after barbed comments against the Federal Reserve from US President Donald Trump. “We closed below $1300 [last] week, which does certainly change the short term outlook and will have resilient longs a little nervous,” says Monday’s Asian gold price note from Swiss refining and finance group MKS Pamp. 

Friday’s drop in the gold price saw heavy liquidation of the giant gold-backed ETF vehicle the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD), with net share cancellations of 1.5% – the biggest one-day loss since February last year. That saw the quantity of gold needed to back the GLD shrink by 11 tonnes to 771 tonnes, the smallest so far in 2019.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1,306.67.

The projected lower bound is: 1,263.10.

The projected closing price is: 1,284.88.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 6.8263. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 36.02. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -169.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -1.855 at 1,284.560. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 29% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,286.3511,289.5001,283.2201,284.560 9,887

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,314.16 1,301.30 1,246.64
Volatility: 10 11 11
Volume: 989 198 49

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 3.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.

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