Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Uptrend Above $1,300

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Uptrend Above $1,300

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Uptrend Above $1,300

During the past few days, there was a solid rise in gold price above the $1,295 resistance against the US Dollar. The price surpassed the $1,300 and $1,320 resistance levels before starting a downside correction.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price traded as high as $1,326 and later corrected below the $1,320 and $1,315 support levels. There was a break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the last major upside from the $1,297 low to $1,326 high.

However, the decline was protected by the $1,308-1,310 support and pivot zone. The price tested and found support near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last major upside from the $1,297 low to $1,326 high.

It recovered above $1,312, but it is still facing a solid resistance near the $1,318-1,320 area. There is also a short term bearish trend line formed with resistance at $1,318 on the 4-hours chart of XAU/USD.

A clear break above the trend line might push the price back towards the $1,325 and $1,330 resistance levels. On the downside, there are many supports, including $1,310, $1,308 and $1,302. Therefore, only a daily close below $1,300 might start a major decline in gold price.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,273.44.

The projected upper bound is: 1,334.67.

The projected lower bound is: 1,296.70.

The projected closing price is: 1,315.69.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 36.2114. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 65.29. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -1.250 at 1,313.700. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 27% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,314.9501,315.8001,312.2501,313.700 5,002

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,309.74 1,273.51 1,245.54
Volatility: 11 9 11
Volume: 500 100 25

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 5.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 43 periods.

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