Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) U.S. dollar index solidly higher and hit a nearly two-year high
The key outside markets are in a bearish posture for the precious metals early today, as the U.S. dollar index solidly higher and hit a nearly two-year high, on some safe-haven buying heading into the weekend. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $52.50 a barrel.
European and Asian stock markets were mostly lower overnight, following some dour economic news out of China. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The S&P 500 is poised to close at a new for-the-move low close today.
It appears the U.S. trade tariffs slapped on Chinese imports are significantly hurting China’s economy. November readings on industrial production were weaker than expected, while retail sales were down to the lowest level in 15 years. China’s industrial output rose 5.4% in November, year-on-year, after a rising at a rate of 5.9% in October. Retail sales were up 8.1% in November, year-on-year, following a rise of 8.6% in October. This is a negative for the metals markets, suggesting less demand coming from the world’s second-largest economy.
Technically, gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in February futures above solid resistance at the July high of $1,284.10. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,225.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,247.30 and then at $1,250.00. First support is seen at $1,240.00 and then at $1,236.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,228.07.
The projected upper bound is: 1,261.03.
The projected lower bound is: 1,216.64.
The projected closing price is: 1,238.83.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 45.5741. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 85 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 25. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -3.940 at 1,238.120. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 2% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,240.49 1,224.18 1,253.70
Volatility: 8 12 11
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 1.2% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.