Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops In January

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops In January

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) U.S. Consumer Sentiment Drops In January

The gold market is holding on to gains above $1,300 an ounce, trading near a seven month high as pessimism grows among U.S. consumers.

Tuesday, the U.S. Conference Board, said that is Consumer Confidence Index fell to a reading of 120.2, down from December’s reading of 128.1 and missing expectations. According to consensus forecasts, economists were expecting a reading around 1250.

This is the second month consumer confidence has dropped as consumer continue to worry about future economic conditions. The report said that the expectations index dropped sharply to 87.3, down from December’s reading of 99.1. The Present Situation Index dropped to a reading of 169.6, down from the previous reading of 169.9.

The gold market is seeing little reaction to the weaker-than-expected data. February gold futures last traded at $1,307.10 an ounce, up 0.31% on the day.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 1,331.92.

The projected lower bound is: 1,293.68.

The projected closing price is: 1,312.80.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 97.4362. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 70.07. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 209.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 7.600 at 1,311.060. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 25% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,303.3801,311.9501,302.0501,311.060 16,314

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,291.04 1,262.18 1,245.60
Volatility: 12 10 11
Volume: 1,631 326 82

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 5.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 37 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an overbought condition.

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