Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) trying to push through $1,290

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) trying to push through $1,290

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) trying to push through $1,290

Once again, gold put up a successful fight to hold the $1,280 level for a good part of Tuesday, before gold closed around $1,285. This morning, gold is trading around $1,288 and is trying to push through $1,290, which more than likely will fail, with the metal staying in the $1,280-$1,290 range.

The pattern still suggests there is a higher likelihood that gold will break to the downside, but of course this is the torture of consolidation. The tight change makes it more of a problem, which is why we will wait for the metal to commit to a direction before becoming active again.

We are leaning short and will continue to do so until gold can close above $1,290 for a couple of days. In a tight trading range, there is not much to do and waiting seems to be the prudent thing to do. We are looking to hop on board a trending market, not get chopped up in a consolidating one.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,287.77.

The projected upper bound is: 1,301.09.

The projected lower bound is: 1,259.35.

The projected closing price is: 1,280.22.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 65.7158. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 54 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 43. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 0.370 at 1,280.995. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 52% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,280.0901,281.6491,280.0901,280.995 547

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,280.03 1,291.61 1,253.69
Volatility: 9 10 11
Volume: 55 11 3

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 2.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 29 periods.

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