Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) traders and investors worldwide are in a bit of a risk-averse mood

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) traders and investors worldwide are in a bit of a risk-averse mood

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) traders and investors worldwide are in a bit of a risk-averse mood

Gold and silver prices are firmer in early U.S. trading Tuesday. There are several geopolitical matters at work that have traders and investors worldwide in a bit of a risk-averse mood. December gold futures were last up $4.30 an ounce at 1,508.70. December Comex silver prices were last up $0.045 at $17.585 an ounce.

Global stock markets are still a bit wobbly, what with geopolitical issues lingering not far from the front burner of the marketplace, and which could flare up at any time. These include the U.S.-China trade war, U.S.-Iran tensions, Brexit, Hong Kong civil unrest and the Democrats working to impeach Trump. Reports overnight said German Chancellor Merkel told U.K. Prime Minister Johnson that the U.K’s Brexit deal won’t work for the European Union.

And as the U.S.-China trade talks get under way this week, the U.S. has just blacklisted 28 Chinese entities due to those firm purportedly repressing Muslims in China. Ideas are mixed on the outcome of this latest round of meetings between the world’s two largest economies. The Chinese may think they can leverage President Trump’s political problems in the U.S. to their advantage. However, Trump has “doubled-down” and said the U.S. will get a good and complete trade deal with China, or none at all.

Technically, the gold bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have stabilized the market. Still, a four-week-old downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $1,543.30. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing December futures prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $1,465.00. First resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $1,518.80 and then at last week’s high of $1,525.80. First support is seen at $1,500.00 and then at $1,490.00.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1,549.51.

The projected lower bound is: 1,464.53.

The projected closing price is: 1,507.02.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 68.2188. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.77. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 29 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -9. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 12.170 at 1,505.520. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 44% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1,493.1501,508.3151,487.2351,505.520 71,235
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1,496.37 1,502.66 1,367.19
Volatility: 19 18 14
Volume: 7,124 1,425 356

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 10.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 19 periods.

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