Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) trade cautiously lower as selloff may accelerate
Gold prices traded cautiously lower this past week, making for the worst performance over the course of 5 days since the first week of July. While progress was very gradual, there were a couple of notable technical developments. Together, these threaten the precious metal’s rise going back to August 2018.
However, I am also closely watching the break under a near-term rising support line going back to June on the first chart below. From here, further closes to the downside underpin these bearish technical signals. Together, these may pave the way for a test of 1392 – former high from March 2014 – before targeting the July 1 low at 1381. Beyond that is a range between 1357 and 1366.
On the other hand, should XAU/USD see buying pressure in the week ahead and take out immediate resistance at 1422 – the 23.6% Fibonacci extension – that may pave the way for a retest of the August 2013 high at 1433. Clearing that opens the door to refacing the 38.2% extension at 1447 which previously tamed the dominant uptrend.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 1,456.93.
The projected lower bound is: 1,385.34.
The projected closing price is: 1,421.13.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 22.1642. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 4.180 at 1,418.310. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 18% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,421.71 1,366.79 1,297.99
Volatility: 17 16 12
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 9.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 53 periods.