Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) The COT report remains near-term bearish with commercial shorts just off record levels
The declining Dollar and weaker than expected economic data are supporting gold in October.
The Dollar is correcting after approaching the upper trend channel earlier this month. The decline is nearing support near the 200-day MA, and the 9-day RSI is oversold. Prices could probe the lower boundary, but a bottom is becoming likely. We could see a trend reversal around the October 30th Fed announcement.
Gold has been consolidating for about 6-week after peaking in September. The COT report remains near-term bearish with commercial shorts just off record levels – it will take time to work down those positions. The next buying opportunity in gold may not arrive until November. I have a minimum target of $1410 – $1420 and see the potential for a backtest of the June $1380 breakout area.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1,527.11.
The projected lower bound is: 1,452.01.
The projected closing price is: 1,489.56.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 49.6613. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.98. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 37 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -39. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -1.940 at 1,489.700. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 40% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,493.18 1,506.63 1,375.36
Volatility: 10 16 14
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 8.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 27 periods.
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