GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) Support at $1204
GOLD PRICES set new 12-month lows against a rising Dollar on Wednesday in London, touching $1222 per ounce as the US currency rose yet again following weaker-than-expected Eurozone and UK inflation data.
Gold bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. There are no early clues to suggest a market bottom is close at hand.
Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $1,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,200.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,229.10 and then at $1,236.20. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,220.90 and then at $1,210.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,276.23.
The projected upper bound is: 1,244.28.
The projected lower bound is: 1,205.15.
The projected closing price is: 1,224.71.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 21 white candles and 29 black candles for a net of 8 black candles.
A long lower shadow occurred. This is typically a bullish signal (particularly when it occurs near a low price level, at a support level, or when the security is oversold).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 12.8701. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 26.59. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -196.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 11 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -0.690 at 1,226.430. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 1% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,244.73 1,277.28 1,300.87
Volatility: 9 10 11
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 5.7% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 21 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an oversold condition. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.
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