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Sunday, October 17, 2021
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Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Still in an Uptrend

$XAU #Gold #Commodities #FX #Trading #Markets

Gold
Ticker: XAU=
Price: $1971.951

Outlook

Gold and silver prices are solidly up in early U.S. trading Tuesday, boosted in part by a wilting U.S. dollar index that overnight hit another two-year low. Both metals see their chart postures as fully bullish, which continues to invite technical buyers. October gold futures were last up $17.10 at $1,988.00. December gold futures prices were last up $0.586 at $29.18 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mostly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The Nasdaq hit another record high overnight, with the S&P again hitting a record high Monday. Stock splits and the Dow Index realignment Monday have helped to boost the indexes early this week

Technically, the gold bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, amid recent choppy trading. Prices are still in an uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in October futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00.

Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,900.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,992.50 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,963.80 and then at Monday’s low of $1,955.00.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 2,053.59.

The projected lower bound is: 1,899.01.

The projected closing price is: 1,976.30.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 34 white candles and 16 black candles for a net of 18 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.4839. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.14. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 73. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 1.944 at 1,972.085. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 24% wider than normal.

Open       High       Low        Close      Volume
1,969.350  1,973.600  1,967.390  1,972.085  5,549
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period    50-period     200-period
Close:           1,950.12     1,896.89      1,686.87
Volatility:      16           25            23
Volume:          555          111           28

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 16.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.

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