Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) solid resistance at $1,600.00

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) solid resistance at $1,600.00

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) solid resistance at $1,600.00

Gold and silver prices are weaker in early U.S. trading Thursday. Some upbeat U.S. economic data has put some added downside pressure on the metals. The markets are also pausing to see how early trading unfolds in the U.S. stock market, following overnight developments on the U.S.-China trade war front. There is a big batch of U.S. economic data to be released today. December gold futures were last down $3.20 an ounce at 1,524.60. September Comex silver prices were last down $0.11 at $17.17 an ounce.

The just-released U.S. retail sales report for July showed gained 0.7%, which was more than double trade expectations. That news put more downside price pressure on the safe-haven metals and falls into the camp of U.S. monetary policy hawks.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight and trying to stabilize from recent selling pressure. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

Technically, the gold bulls have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. A 10-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in October futures above solid resistance at $1,600.00.

Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing December futures prices below solid technical support at $1,500.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,534.90 and then at this week’s high of $1,546.10. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,518.30 and then at $1,510.00.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,415.18.

The projected upper bound is: 1,566.75.

The projected lower bound is: 1,485.31.

The projected closing price is: 1,526.03.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 62.4425. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 72.54. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 94. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 6.197 at 1,522.282. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 115% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1,516.4901,526.5091,508.0001,522.282 29,115
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1,492.62 1,416.74 1,315.26
Volatility: 15 18 13
Volume: 2,912 582 146

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 15.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 10 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an overbought condition. The security price has set a new 14-period high while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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