Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Remains Under Pressure
Gold is currently sitting on the important 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the April – August 2018 move at $1,287/oz. and may make another attempt at the recent lows. A quiet start to a holiday-shortened week in Europe saw gold fade lower and if gold closes below $1,287/oz. an important zone between $1,281/oz. and $1,276.8/oz. nears.
Below here the precious metal will be trading back at levels last seen at the end of December 2018 and the sell-off may gather strength. The chart does show a couple of supportive signs, with gold remaining above the important 200-day moving average, currently at $1,257/oz. while the CCI indicator shows the metal touching oversold conditions.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,292.35.
The projected upper bound is: 1,299.11.
The projected lower bound is: 1,253.63.
The projected closing price is: 1,276.37.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
A bullish harami occurred (where the current small white body is contained within an unusually large black body). During a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=) this pattern implies an end to the decline as the bears appear to have exhausted themselves.
During an uptrend the bullish harami pattern is bearish as the bears appear to be gaining strength as the bulls weaken.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 13.0389. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.24. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 39 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -176.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 0.782 at 1,276.953. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 4% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,291.54 1,304.48 1,250.06
Volatility: 10 11 11
Volume: 15 3 1
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 2.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods.
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