Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) rebound off downtrend support – risk remains while below 1522/26
Gold prices tested a key pivot zone today on the back of the ECB interest rate announcement with price still holding within a near-term descending pattern. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the XAU/USD charts this week.
In my latest Gold Price Outlook we noted that, XAU/USD was, “trading just below the August highs and while the broader outlook remains weighted to the topside, the immediate advance remains vulnerable while below 1558 near-term.” Price registered a high at 1556.58 last week before reversing sharply with a break below the 1522/26 key pivot threshold, shifting the focus lower in gold.
The decline turned just pips from the August swing low at 1479 with today’s rally failing precisely in the 1522/26 resistance zone- a breach / close above this threshold is needed to alleviate further downside pressure. That said, the risk remains for a deeper correction here while below this level.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1,542.30.
The projected lower bound is: 1,458.41.
The projected closing price is: 1,500.35.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 16.0352. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 49.11. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -80. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 0 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 1.385 at 1,498.685. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 13% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,515.52 1,472.45 1,344.93
Volatility: 18 18 14
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 11.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.
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