Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) prices unable to sustain advance despite lower US Dollar
Gold prices marked time as would-be support from another down day for the US Dollar was offset as bond yields edged narrowly higher in risk-on trade. Stocks surged as traders latched on to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell believed to be setting the stage for a near-term rate cut.
Usually sentiment-linked crude oil prices idled however. Gains may have been offset as Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said Russia would lose market share if OPEC+ output cuts were extended. Separately, API said US stockpiles added 3.55 million barrels last week, stoking supply glut worries.
Gold prices have stalled at resistance in the 1323.40-26.30 area. A daily close above it would expose the late-February swing top at 1346.75 next. Initial support is in the 1303.70-09.12 region, with a turn back below that setting the stage to challenge rising trend line support at 1275.98.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,295.95.
The projected upper bound is: 1,366.85.
The projected lower bound is: 1,320.97.
The projected closing price is: 1,343.91.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 95.8826. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 77.24. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 73 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 184.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 18.470 at 1,343.350. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 61% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,299.75 1,288.31 1,262.57
Volatility: 12 11 11
Volume: 1,292 258 65
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 6.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an overbought condition.
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