Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) prices are posting double-digit gains
Gold prices are posting double-digit gains and hit a nine-week high in early-morning U.S. trading Monday. Safe-haven demand remains in play to start the trading week and the month, as global stock markets are selling off. August gold futures were last up $11.60 an ounce at $1,322.70. July Comex silver prices were last up $0.128 at $14.695 an ounce.
European and Asian stock markets were down overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins and hit three-month lows overnight.
Risk aversion is keener to start the trading week and the month. The ongoing U.S. trade war with China and new worries about a U.S. trade dispute with Mexico have traders and investors jittery. In fact, some analysts are now saying the Federal Reserve will have to lower U.S. interest rates this year to offset a slowing pace of economic growth caused by the trade disputes.
Government bond yields in the U.S., Germany and other countries are on the decline as investors seek out safe-haven assets and shed riskier assets like equities.
Technically, the gold bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum now. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at $1,335.70.
Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing August futures prices below solid technical support at $1,300.00. First resistance is seen at $1,325.00 and then at $1,330.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,310.90 and then at $1,305.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1,347.05.
The projected lower bound is: 1,302.88.
The projected closing price is: 1,324.97.
A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 22 white candles and 28 black candles for a net of 6 black candles.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 95.0770. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 71.80. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 71 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 255.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 19.485 at 1,324.735. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 6% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,287.73 1,287.69 1,261.32
Volatility: 12 11 11
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 5.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an overbought condition.
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