Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) prices are likely to rise if Trump says yes to the tariffs

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) prices are likely to rise if Trump says yes to the tariffs

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) prices are likely to rise if Trump says yes to the tariffs

Gold is trading marginally higher on Thursday shortly before the regular session opening. The market is trading inside yesterday’s range which suggests investor indecision and impending volatility.

The indecision is being fueled by uncertainty over the outcome of the Brexit vote and worries over U.S.-China trade relations. On Wednesday, gold surged after the U.S. Dollar plunged in reaction to dovish decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve. So far, we have not seen a follow-through to the upside.

Brexit Vote

Uncertainty over the outcome of the British election seems to be holding gold traders hostage on Thursday.

At 07:00 GMT, voting began in the United Kingdom, where polls have tightened recently but still predict a Conservative victory. The markets have priced in a Conservative majority that could control parliament and lead Britain out of the European Union at the end of January, and anything short of that could prompt a negative reaction in the financial markets that could drive up demand for gold.

A favorable outcome could send the British Pound higher, driving down the U.S. Dollar Index in the process. This could also increase demand for dollar-denominated gold.

Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Signals No Policy Change

The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, following three decreases in a row. The central bank also indicated it does not expect any policy changes through at least 2020.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a news conference the central bank would have to see a persistent rise in inflation before hiking rates once again. The Fed had to cut rates multiple times this year to make up for raising rates too far at the end of 2018, a move that slowed the economy and caused stock prices to drop.

Trump to Meet with China over Tariff Deadline

U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet with top trade advisors on Thursday to discuss planned December 15 tariffs on some $160 billion in Chinese goods, three sources familiar with the plans said, according to Reuters, as markets braced for potential negative impacts.

The senior advisors are expected to present divergent views during the high-stakes meeting, but the final decision will be up to Trump, the sources said.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1,492.84.

The projected lower bound is: 1,441.20.

The projected closing price is: 1,467.02.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 41.6741. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.42. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 76 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 83. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 9 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -6.990 at 1,467.760. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 62% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1,474.6321,486.8001,464.4101,467.760 88,261
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1,468.11 1,479.65 1,408.34
Volatility: 11 11 14
Volume: 8,826 1,765 441

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 4.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 25 periods.

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