Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) price testing wedge-break, trend-line

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) price testing wedge-break, trend-line

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) price testing wedge-break, trend-line

Last week, gold broke out of a multi-week consolidation wedge and looked poised to continue a bit higher following the breakout, but right now we are seeing the initial leg higher wiped away and price working back towards falling inside the wedge.

The top-side trend-line of the wedge is in confluence with a trend-line dating back to the May 30 pivot higher. This is a crucial spot in the short-term. If price falls back inside the wedge and through the other side of it then the reversal will be set up to lead to even more weakness.

At that juncture, a decline down 1375 and worse, down to the 1340s (multi-year wedge-break) could be in the works.

But before looking too far ahead, gold is at support and a decent-looking spot from a risk/reward perspective for would-be longs.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 1,455.00.

The projected lower bound is: 1,383.05.

The projected closing price is: 1,419.03.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 42.2643. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 56.40. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 43. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -8.090 at 1,416.630. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 19% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,424.7501,428.8501,413.8001,416.630 18,296

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1,419.64 1,358.81 1,295.07
Volatility: 20 17 12
Volume: 1,830 366 91

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 9.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 50 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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