Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) price steady as trade deal doubts offset positive US data
Gold prices were little changed on Wednesday as mixed messages on the US-China trade deal countered positive economic data out of the United States. Spot gold was trading at $1,475.55 per ounce by 0118 GMT. US gold futures were flat at $1,480.20.
US manufacturing production rebounded strongly in November, while housing numbers rose higher than expected and permits for future home construction soared to a 12-1/2-year high. Asian shares held close to 18-month highs as markets reacted to positive U.S. economic data, while the dollar hovered near a one-week high against a basket of currencies.
On the trade front, US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer on Tuesday said details of Chinese purchases across U.S. agriculture, manufacturing, energy and service sectors in the “phase one” deal would be detailed in writing, but gave no further details about when the written agreement would be released. The 17-month-long tariff war and its impact on the global economy have pushed the safe-haven gold up about 15% so far this year.
Washington is set to implement five rules to limit exports of sophisticated technology to adversaries like China. More Federal Reserve policymakers upheld the central bank`s stance on leaving interest rates steady on Tuesday and said the bar to cutting or raising them would be high.
Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion and weigh on the dollar. Holdings of the world`s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 0.63% to 880.66 tonnes on Tuesday from Monday. Elsewhere, palladium slipped 0.7% to $1,942.11 an ounce. Prices hit an all-time peak of $1,998.43 in the previous session.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1,499.57.
The projected lower bound is: 1,449.59.
The projected closing price is: 1,474.58.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.0692. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 52.45. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 80 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 55. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 13 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -1.015 at 1,475.185. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 53% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,470.80 1,477.57 1,411.97
Volatility: 9 11 14
Volume: 7,690 1,538 385
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 4.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.