Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Prepares For Next Phase Of Bull Market
After a brief respite last month, fear and uncertainty have returned with a vengeance in October. Recent world events have given investors plenty of reasons to fear an expansion of the global trade war.
Meanwhile on the domestic front, investors are becoming increasingly alarmed by soft economic data which some interpret as a harbinger of recession. Gold’s “fear factor” has thus been resuscitated, bringing with it the promise of stronger prices in the months ahead. Here we’ll discuss the growing number of variables which suggest gold is consolidating its recent gains ahead of the next stage of its long-term bull market.
One sign of a market controlled by the bulls is the steadfast refusal of prices, following a correction, to stay down for long. Bull markets have a tendency to consolidate gains achieved during extended rallies in the form of a lateral trading range, or sideways drift. That appears to be the form of gold’s most recent correction in September following a productive three-month rally.
While gold prices haven’t kept pace with its nearest competitor in the rush to safety – namely U.S. Treasury bonds – it’s instructive that gold has so far responded favorably to most of the latest negative economic and political news. For instance, gold jumped nearly 1.5% on Oct. 2 after the release of the latest ADP National Employment Report. The report showed that private payroll growth by U.S. employers slowed in September and wasn’t as strong in August as previously estimated, according to a Reuters article. Reuters reporter Lucia Mutikani, capturing the sentiment which has overtaken many gold investors, observed:
The longest economic expansion on record, now in its 11th year, is losing ground with the blame largely put on a 15-month trade war between the United States and China, which has eroded business confidence.”
It’s further believed by many investors that the growing signs of a slowing U.S. economy could influence the Federal Reserve to further lower its benchmark interest rate this fall. Lower rates are widely regarded as bullish for gold since it reduces the competition vs. interest-bearing assets for the non-yielding metal.
Elsewhere on the U.S. economic front, the recent disappointments in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is another reason for the revival of gold’s fear factor. The PMI has now fallen for seven consecutive months and is below 50.0, which indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1,548.09.
The projected lower bound is: 1,464.05.
The projected closing price is: 1,506.07.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 76.4002. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.32. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -0.400 at 1,504.350. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 43% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,501.85 1,499.83 1,365.01
Volatility: 18 18 14
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 10.2% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 17 periods.
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