GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) Offer a Mixed Picture

GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) Offer a Mixed Picture

GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) Offer a Mixed Picture

Gold moved on a flat note on Thursday, feeling the pinch of muted demand from jewellers, retailers and industries.

MCX Gold futures were up marginally 0.05 per cent at Rs 29,780 per 10 grams.

In the international market, gold prices sank to a one-year low. Spot gold touched its lowest level since July 2017 at $1,214.45 during Thursday’s session, news agency Reuters reported.

Comments from Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell boosted the US dollar further. Mr Powell said he believed the US was on course for years more of steady growth, and carefully played down the risks to the world’s largest economy of an escalating trade conflict.

His comments also reaffirmed expectations for more interest rate rises in the world’s largest economy. The Fed raised rates in June and policymakers indicated they expect two more rate increases this year.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the downside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,273.50.

The projected upper bound is: 1,239.51.

The projected lower bound is: 1,201.35.

The projected closing price is: 1,220.43.

Candlesticks

A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 2 white candles and 8 black candles for a net of 6 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 20 white candles and 30 black candles for a net of 10 black candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 19.2521. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 25.06. This is where it usually bottoms. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -180.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -4.030 at 1,222.400. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 9% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,227.0201,228.8701,211.0801,222.400 0

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bearish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,241.23 1,275.31 1,300.54
Volatility: 9 10 11
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 6.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an oversold condition. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.

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