Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Momentum Turns Positive
Gold prices broke out above resistance which is now seen as support near the January highs at 1,326. Support below that level is seen near the 5-day moving average at 1,321 and the 20-day moving average at 1,310. Target resistance is seen near the 2018 highs near 1,365. Medium term momentum has turned positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index generated a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line).
The MACD histogram is printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory which points to higher prices. Short-term momentum is accelerating, but the fast stochastic is now printing a reading of 89, which is above the overbought trigger level of 80, which could foreshadow a correction.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
The projected upper bound is: 1,363.76.
The projected lower bound is: 1,323.72.
The projected closing price is: 1,343.74.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 8 white candles and 2 black candles for a net of 6 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 30 white candles and 20 black candles for a net of 10 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 93.3991. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 72.92. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 216.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 0.680 at 1,341.760. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 8% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,319.14 1,290.27 1,245.90
Volatility: 8 10 11
Volume: 558 112 28
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 7.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 53 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an overbought condition.
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