Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Markets Test Highs Again But Fail

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Markets Test Highs Again But Fail

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Markets Test Highs Again But Fail

Gold markets have initially tried to rally during the trading session on Wednesday but found trouble at the $1700 level again. By pulling back from there it shows just how resistive that area is, and perhaps more importantly for the future, what breaking above that level might mean for longer-term moves. Granted, we did race there rather quickly, and the pullback should not be a huge surprise considering just how overdone this rally was initially. By pulling back the way we have, it gives traders an opportunity to pick up a little bit of value.

To the downside, the market does break down below the lows of the trading session, then it opens up an assault on the $1600 level. Breaking down below there opens up the $1550 level next. With that being the case, it’s very likely that we have a roadmap that we can pay attention to, and therefore I’m looking at all of these levels underneath for potential buying opportunities as gold should offer a bit of safety and what has been an extraordinarily negative time. Ultimately, I do think we break out and fresh money comes into the gold market, pushing it even higher, perhaps as high as $1800 and then eventually the $2000 which is a longer-term target of mine. At this point, the candlestick is a sign that perhaps we are running into a little bit of exhaustion and that is something that can be taken advantage of, not necessarily in the form of shorting but as a sign that we will get value soon enough.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1,680.09.

The projected lower bound is: 1,539.66.

The projected closing price is: 1,609.88.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.2937. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 54.66. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 46. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -4.540 at 1,608.754. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 181% wider than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1,616.7491,617.6271,602.6501,608.754 6,002
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1,541.01 1,586.39 1,507.74
Volatility: 43 28 19
Volume: 600 120 30

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 6.7% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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