Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) market watchers are looking ahead to the U.S. Labor Department’s employment report for March
Market watchers are looking ahead to the U.S. Labor Department’s employment report for March, which is due out Friday morning. It’s arguably the most important economic data point of the month. The key non-farm payrolls number in the report is forecast to be up 175,000 in March, with the unemployment rate expected to remain at 3.8%. Wednesday’s precursor report, the ADP national employment report for March, showed a gain of 129,000 jobs, which was a significant downside miss. The payrolls number was forecast to be up 173,000. This suggests Friday’s more important jobs report could also be a miss to the downside.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $62.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Thursday include the weekly jobless claims report and the Challenger job-cuts report. There are also several Federal Reserve officials scheduled to give speeches today.
Technically, the gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded recently and need to show fresh power soon. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in June futures above solid resistance at the March high of $1,330.80. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the March low of $1,287.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,297.90 and then at this week’s high of $1,301.70. First support is seen at $1,280.00 and then at $1,275.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,292.37.
The projected upper bound is: 1,314.78.
The projected lower bound is: 1,270.89.
The projected closing price is: 1,292.83.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 28 white candles and 22 black candles for a net of 6 white candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 46.0902. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 44.59. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 31 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -60. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 0.909 at 1,293.034. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 22% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,298.37 1,308.00 1,248.55
Volatility: 11 11 11
Volume: 48 10 2
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 3.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 6 periods.
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