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Tuesday, May 11, 2021

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Long-Term Target $2700

$XAU #Gold #Commodities #FX #Trading #Markets

Ticker: XAU=
Price: $1943.35


The gold rally is taking a breather with buyers and sellers playing the range game as gold bounces between $1,920 and $2,000 an ounce for the past two weeks. Going forward, the new all-time highs are unlikely until gold tests this level on the downside.

It is worth noting that monthly RSI has reached its extreme levels seen in 2006 and 2008 adding weight to the view for a lengthier pause in the bull trend. Indeed, in the 2001/2011 bull market the two major consolidation phases (2006/2007 and 2008/2009) lasted 16 and 18-months respectively. A similar length of consolidation at this juncture though is not our base case for now.

However, once the consolidation phase is over, gold will be ready for more gains, including a climb towards $2,700 an ounce.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

The projected upper bound is: 2,023.76.

The projected lower bound is: 1,871.93.

The projected closing price is: 1,947.85.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 33 white candles and 17 black candles for a net of 16 white candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 51.2097. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 13 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 51.79. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -17. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -10.023 at 1,943.430. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 37% wider than normal.

Open       High       Low        Close      Volume
1,953.050  1,954.404  1,941.890  1,943.430  12,169
Technical Outlook
Short Term:        Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term:         Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period    50-period    200-period
Close:           1,949.91     1,880.16     1,676.72
Volatility:      28           25           22
Volume:          1,217        243          61

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 15.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods.

Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 2 periods.

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