Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) likely to be influenced by a slew of major U.S. economic data
This week the price action in gold is likely to be influenced by a slew of major U.S. economic data including Retail Sales, ISM Manufacturing PMI and Durable Goods. However, the major market moving event this week is likely to be the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report, especially because of last month’s major miss to the downside.
Traders expect the March Non-Farm Employment Change to show the economy added 175,000 jobs, up from 20,000. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to come in at 0.2% and the Unemployment Rate is expected to hold steady at 3.8%.
Another miss to the downside by payrolls will likely be bullish for gold especially after the Commerce Department reported on Friday muted price pressures.
A combination of weak inflation and job market will mean the Fed was right in calling off its rate hikes for the rest of the year, but investors may read this as a sign the economy is headed toward a recession which would be bullish for gold.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,292.53.
The projected upper bound is: 1,315.96.
The projected lower bound is: 1,268.27.
The projected closing price is: 1,292.12.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 27 white candles and 23 black candles for a net of 4 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 14.5377. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 11 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 42.26. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 26 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -138.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 1.750 at 1,291.900. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 14% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,307.31 1,307.49 1,247.73
Volatility: 11 12 11
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 3.5% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 1 periods.