Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Late Break Through $1461.30 Could Trigger Acceleration to Downside

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Late Break Through $1461.30 Could Trigger Acceleration to Downside

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Late Break Through $1461.30 Could Trigger Acceleration to Downside

Gold futures are trading slightly lower late in the session on Friday. Rising U.S. Treasury yields helped push up the U.S. Dollar, driving down demand for dollar-denominated gold. The catalyst behind the jump in yields was a pair of industry reports that showed better-than-expected improvement in the U.S. factory and services sectors.

IHS Markit said its “flash” purchasing managers index (PMI) for manufacturing rose to 52.2 in November from a final reading of 51.3 in October, while its preliminary services PMI increased to 51.6 this month from 50.6 last month.

Also helping to boost the greenback was a drop in the Euro. The single-currency fell after a survey showed Euro Zone business growth almost ground to a halt this month as activity in the bloc’s dominant services industry increased at a much weaker pace than expected and among manufacturers it contracted again.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $1463.10, the direction of the December Comex gold market into the close on Friday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the main Fibonacci level at $1461.30.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1461.30 will indicate the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could trigger a late session break into the minor bottom at $1456.60, followed by an uptrending Gann angle at $1448.00 and the main bottom at $1446.20.

Bullish Scenario

Holding above $1461.30 will signal the presence of buyers. Taking out $1471.00 could trigger a late acceleration to the upside with the main top at $1479.20 the next upside target.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,470.93.

The projected upper bound is: 1,492.93.

The projected lower bound is: 1,430.10.

The projected closing price is: 1,461.51.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 43.2205. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 40.27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 62 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -34. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -2.110 at 1,462.040. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 0% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1,464.1501,472.9001,460.7501,462.040 0
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1,465.40 1,489.93 1,397.89
Volatility: 6 13 15
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 4.6% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 11 periods.

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