Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) investors’ appetite for riskier assets increase
Gold fell for a fourth straight session on Monday, hitting a two-week low as investors’ appetite for riskier assets increased on renewed optimism that a resolution to the protracted U.S.-China trade conflict will soon be reached.
U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $1,456.90 per ounce. “There is some renewed risk-on (sentiment) in the market based on the news from the trade deal front … we have seen the bonds trade a tad weaker, yen trading softer as well and gold drifting lower,” said Saxo Bank commodity strategist Ole Hansen. Hansen added that the stock market “is trading on the assumption that a trade deal of some sort will be reached.” World shares staged a cautious rally, while the safe-haven Japanese yen fell to a one-week low against the U.S. dollar.
Beijing and Washington were “very close” to an initial trade agreement, Chinese newspaper Global Times reported, citing experts close to the talks. Adding to the positive mood was the weekend announcement that China would seek to improve protections for intellectual property rights, a sticking point in the talks. Intellectual property rights protection “is a key element the U.S. wants China to reform in order to reach a trade deal.
It could be that the U.S.’s hard-line approach on the trade deal with China is putting pressure on China to get a deal completed soon,” Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said in a note. Still, investors remained cautious, with officials, lawmakers and trade experts from both sides saying an ambitious “phase two” trade deal looked less likely. “There is no major selling in the gold market, which might suggest that people are still sceptical about these developments,” Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke said.
“They see them as some sort of temporary relief, not a real longer-term solution.” Speculators increased their bullish positions in COMEX gold and silver in the week to Nov. 19, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,470.86.
The projected upper bound is: 1,485.20.
The projected lower bound is: 1,422.72.
The projected closing price is: 1,453.96.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 22.2729. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 37.09. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 63 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -108.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 0 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -7.218 at 1,454.822. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 2% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,465.31 1,489.07 1,398.56
Volatility: 6 13 15
Volume: 8,029 1,606 401
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 4.0% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 12 periods. The security price has set a new 14-period low while our momentum oscillator has not. This is a bullish divergence.