Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) hits six month high

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) hits six month high

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) hits six month high

Gold prices rose on Thursday, helped by a weaker dollar and as a relief recovery in stock markets fizzled out, driving investors toward the safe-haven metal.

Spot gold was 0.6 percent higher at $1,274.50 per ounce at 1:44 p.m. EST, after hitting at $1,279.06 in the previous session, its highest since June 19.

U.S. gold futures settled $8.10 higher at $1,281.10 per ounce.

“The weaker dollar index is supporting the buying interest in gold and the U.S. stock indexes have pulled back significantly, which has also helped,” Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals.

“Also, the technical pasture of the gold market has become significantly bullish on a near-term basis, which is inviting some chart-based buying too.”

A global equity rally fueled by a dramatic surge on Wall Street ran out of steam on Thursday, after a fall in Chinese industrial profits again showed the pressures on the global economy. U.S. stocks fell sharply at open on Thursday.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,234.01.

The projected upper bound is: 1,295.26.

The projected lower bound is: 1,256.42.

The projected closing price is: 1,275.84.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

An engulfing bullish line occurred (where a white candle’s real body completely contains the previous black candle’s real body). The engulfing bullish pattern is bullish during a downtrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bears to the bulls.

If the engulfing bullish pattern occurs during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=), it may be a last engulfing top which indicates a top. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes below the top of the current (white) candle’s real body.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 83.0447. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 70.95. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 93 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 157.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 17 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 7.890 at 1,274.790. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 37% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,266.8001,278.9501,266.0001,274.790 18,277

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,254.42 1,231.76 1,251.25
Volatility: 11 10 12
Volume: 1,828 366 91

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 1.9% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 14 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an overbought condition.

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