Home Commodities Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) heightened trader/investor risk aversion

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) heightened trader/investor risk aversion


Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) heightened trader/investor risk aversion

Gold prices are moderately higher in early morning U.S. trading Wednesday. At mid-week there is somewhat heightened trader/investor risk aversion, as evidenced by lower world stock markets today. August gold futures were last up $8.10 an ounce at $1,339.20. July Comex silver prices were last up $0.07 at $14.81 an ounce.

European and Asian stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. indexes at mid-week have ended an impressive rally streak that lifted prices well up from the early-June three-month lows.

It appears that global economic growth and world trade concerns are more on traders’ and investors’ mind at mid-week, putting them in a mood for buying safe-haven metals and selling equities.

The just-released U.S. economic data point of the day is the consumer price index report for May, which came in at up 0.1% from April, which was right in line with market expectations. The CPI rose 0.3% last month. Very low worldwide inflation levels in major economies is giving central bankers more leeway to ease their monetary policies.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,305.38.

The projected upper bound is: 1,354.64.

The projected lower bound is: 1,313.31.

The projected closing price is: 1,333.97.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 7 white candles and 3 black candles for a net of 4 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 40.4627. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 67.70. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 62. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 10 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -0.055 at 1,333.105. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 106% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,333.6001,333.6601,332.8001,333.105 136

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,328.04 1,292.72 1,266.49
Volatility: 13 10 11
Volume: 14 3 1

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 5.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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