Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) growth worries likely to persist, price could rise further
Goldman Sachs Group upgraded its gold forecast for the first time this year, upping its 3-month and 6-month projections to $1,575 and $1,600 an ounce in light of escalating trade war tensions.
Gold prices were solidly above $1,500 an ounce on Monday — a level that was hit last week for the first time since 2013.
After rising nearly 4% last week, gold’s rally is far from over, according to analysts at Goldman, who see more upside in the yellow metal.
The U.S.-China trade war has entered stage two this summer as U.S. President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion worth of Chinese imports starting September 1, the note said.
“With the U.S. and China taking a harder line on trade, our economists no longer expect a trade deal before the 2020 president election—a fundamental change in view,” the analysts including Sabine Schels wrote on Wednesday.
A currency war with depreciating CNY plays a key role in trade war tensions and Goldman’s outlook for the precious metals.
“Previously, China opted for stability and defended its currency in order to facilitate the ongoing trade negotiations in the background. Now, FX appears to be playing an increasingly central role in the trade tensions,” the analysts said. “We estimate that a 10% depreciation of CNY vs USD would spell as much as 13% downside to the S&P GSCI industrial metals sub-index.”
Weaker CNY, in this case, means higher gold prices due to increased global growth fears, added Goldman.
“The depreciation of the CNY led to an increase in ‘fear’, lower long term U.S. rates, and thus a higher gold price. Thus, a substantial depreciation of the CNY could lead to more ‘fear’ regarding U.S. and global growth akin to early 2016 and should be bullish gold,” the analysts stated.
Gold’s ETF demand is also on a strong uptrend, with Goldman upping its 2019 forecast from 300 tonnes to 600 tonnes.
“Now with the DM CAI persistently low, the trade war escalating, global equities selling off and volatility spiking, it looks like our risk scenario is playing out. Indeed, gold ETFs have recently built momentum almost as strong as in 2016 and we believe that can be maintained in the short term,” the analysts said.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,397.38.
The projected upper bound is: 1,555.33.
The projected lower bound is: 1,475.21.
The projected closing price is: 1,515.27.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 29 white candles and 21 black candles for a net of 8 white candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 86.4535. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 73.18. This is where it usually tops. The RSI usually forms tops and bottoms before the underlying security. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 27 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 118.This is an overbought reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses below 100. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 14.698 at 1,511.538. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 91% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,467.63 1,405.75 1,311.01
Volatility: 20 18 13
Volume: 2,072 414 104
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 15.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods. Our momentum oscillator is currently indicating that XAU= is currently in an overbought condition.
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