Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) gaining further traction on higher crude rates

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) gaining further traction on higher crude rates

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) gaining further traction on higher crude rates

Investors continue to cut their exposure to gold. Speculators switched to a net short position in COMEX gold in the week to April 16, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.

Also, holdings of SPDR Gold Trust, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, dropped to 751.68 tonnes on Thursday, the lowest levels seen since Oct. 26.

“Gold has climbed slightly … benefiting from higher oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions. With regional equity markets possibly coming under pressure today as a result, gold could be a principal beneficiary in today’s session,”Shayne Heffernan, CEO and Founder of Heffx, said in a note.

However, capping gains for the metal was an upbeat dollar, which gained against the British pound after data showed that United States’ economic growth might have picked up in the first quarter.

U.S. retail sales increased the most in 1-1/2 years in March, the latest indication that economic growth picked up in the first quarter after a false start, data showed on Thursday.

Gold is positively correlated to oil as the metal is often seen as a hedge against oil-led inflation, while a stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Spot gold was up 0.4 percent at $1,279.48 per ounce, having touched $1,270.63 in the previous session — its lowest since Dec. 27, 2018.

The metal dropped 1.2 percent in the previous week, marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline.

U.S. gold futures were 0.5 percent higher at $1,281.70 an ounce.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,291.42.

The projected upper bound is: 1,300.94.

The projected lower bound is: 1,255.58.

The projected closing price is: 1,278.26.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 16.8255. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 6 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 39.92. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 41 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -101.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a buy 12 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 3.951 at 1,278.961. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 0% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,275.5801,279.7091,275.1001,278.961 9,242

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,288.27 1,303.01 1,250.38
Volatility: 10 11 11
Volume: 924 185 46

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 2.3% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.

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