Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) four-week-old price uptrend is in place
Technically, the gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close in February futures above solid technical resistance at the July high of $1,284.10.
Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,225.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,251.70 and then at this week’s high of $1,256.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,244.40 and then at $1,240.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards
By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,227.87.
The projected upper bound is: 1,264.70.
The projected lower bound is: 1,220.42.
The projected closing price is: 1,242.56.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=). It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend, it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 54.2499. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 60.27. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 84 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 65. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 8 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -3.690 at 1,241.710. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 1% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Overbought
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,238.83 1,223.46 1,254.12
Volatility: 8 12 11
Volume: 1,685 337 84
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 1.0% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 5 periods.