GOLD 1 OZ (XAU=X) Firmer On Some Risk Aversion
Gold prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading Monday. The safe-haven metal is benefitting from a bit of risk aversion seen in the marketplace to start the trading week as U.S.-China trade tensions are rising. A weaker U.S. dollar index today is also working in favor of the precious metals market bulls. December gold futures were last up $3.30 an ounce at $1,204.60. December Comex silver was last up $0.016 at $14.375 an ounce.
Technically, gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent sideways price action favors the bulls and suggests a market bottom is in place. Gold bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $1,220.70. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $1,167.10. First resistance is seen at Friday’s high of $1,215.80 and then at last week’s high of $1,218.00. First support is seen at $1,200.00 and then at Friday’s low of $1,196.00.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Downwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1,219.75.
The projected lower bound is: 1,175.55.
The projected closing price is: 1,197.65.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.
A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 52.2260. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 22 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 47.69. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a buy 26 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -16. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 23 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -0.610 at 1,198.480. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 64% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bearish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,200.31 1,205.11 1,283.37
Volatility: 9 12 11
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 6.6% below its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 16 periods.
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