Home Commodities Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Cycles Bottoming

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Cycles Bottoming


Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) Cycles Bottoming

As noted in past articles, the mid-term cycles were confirmed to be headed lower into the current month of May, where the next mid-term price trough is expected to form. Whether that low is already in place remains speculation at the present time, though a decent rally into mid-to-late Summer is favored to follow the current correction.

The key cycle for the mid-term picture is the 154-day wave, which was last projected to peak back in mid-February of this year, and, from there, was looking for a correction into the month of May.

In terms of price, our minimum target called for a drop back to the 154-day moving average on the downward phase of this wave, which was obviously met with the action seen into mid-April. In looking at our 154-day detrend’s projected path, we can see that this wave is at or into bottoming territory, and with that is looking for a rally in the coming months.

Even with the above said and noted, we don’t yet know whether this 154-day wave has seen its expected low – or else has a lower low to go before bottoming. The ideal path might favor the latter, simply to set up a decent technical contraction on the daily chart – which would add support for the anticipated rally into the Summer months. We have a critical short-term reversal level for this 154-day wave.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1,303.53.

The projected lower bound is: 1,265.30.

The projected closing price is: 1,284.42.


A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 50.3089. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 50.41. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 65 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -13. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 1 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 1.595 at 1,284.645. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 32% narrower than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,283.1501,285.1731,280.2001,284.645 0

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,284.97 1,289.36 1,258.13
Volatility: 10 9 11
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 2.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is relatively normal as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.

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