Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage

Gold prices are moderately higher in early U.S. trading Monday. Trading has been choppy at higher levels recently, but the bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage, and that continues to invite the chart-based traders to the long side of the market. August gold futures were last up $6.20 an ounce at 1,406.20. September Comex silver prices were last up $0.109 at $15.11 an ounce.

Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker in quieter overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Last Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report has somewhat dented trader and investor enthusiasm on notions the Federal Reserve is now less likely to lower interest rates at its July monetary policy meeting. Friday’s jobs data rallied the U.S. dollar and pressured U.S. Treasury prices. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks to the U.S. House of Representatives on U.S. monetary policy on Wednesday morning.

In overnight news, the Turkish lira is under pressure and dropped around 2% against the U.S. dollar after Turkey’s president fired the head of the Turkish central bank.

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

Note: this chart shows extraordinary price action to the upside.

By the way, prices are vulnerable to a correction towards 1,352.45.

The projected upper bound is: 1,429.01.

The projected lower bound is: 1,366.43.

The projected closing price is: 1,397.72.


A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 3 white candles and 7 black candles for a net of 4 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 26 white candles and 24 black candles for a net of 2 white candles.

Three black candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three black crows, the steady downward pattern is bearish.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 39.5385. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 59.06. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -21. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 7 period(s) ago.


The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 2 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed down -4.150 at 1,395.400. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 108% wider than normal.

Open High Low Close Volume___
1,399.6501,407.6001,391.4501,395.400 0

Technical Outlook
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bullish
Long Term: Bullish

Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1,408.05 1,329.33 1,283.06
Volatility: 20 15 12
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.


PREC.M.XAU= is currently 8.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an upward trend. Volatility is extremely high when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that volatility will decrease and prices will stabilize in the near term. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bullish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 39 periods. our momentum oscillator has set a new 14-period low while the security price has not. This is a bearish divergence.

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