Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) awaiting ECB meeting
Gold and silver prices are trading near steady in early U.S. trading Wednesday. Traders are on hold at mid-week, awaiting central bank meetings that are just over the horizon. The gold and silver bulls have faded recently and need a shot of bullish news. December gold futures were last up $0.60 an ounce at 1,499.80. December Comex silver prices were last up $0.024 at $18.21 an ounce.
Asian and European stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Generally, there remains low risk aversion in the world marketplace at mid-week. China has made a positive overture to the U.S. regarding trade when it said it will exempt certain U.S. products from tariffs for one year. This week the U.S.-China trade tensions have appeared to ratchet down a notch.
Focus is turning to the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, at which time the ECB is expected to only very slightly cut interest rates, pushing them further into negative territory. The Federal Reserve meets next week and is expected to cut U.S. interest rates by 0.25%.
Technically, the gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded and they need to show fresh power this week to keep a three-month-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in October futures above solid resistance at the September high of $1,566.20. Bears’ next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing December futures prices below solid technical support at $1,475.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $1,509.10 and then at 1,520.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,492.10 and then at $1,488.90.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.
The projected upper bound is: 1,540.97.
The projected lower bound is: 1,456.96.
The projected closing price is: 1,498.97.
A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 23 white candles and 27 black candles for a net of 4 black candles.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 8.1426. This is an oversold reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses above 20 The last signal was a sell 21 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 48.68. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 10 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -139.This is an oversold reading. However, a signal isn’t generated until the indicator crosses above -100. The last signal was a sell 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 9 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed up 11.890 at 1,497.390. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 14% narrower than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Oversold
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,518.40 1,470.78 1,343.63
Volatility: 18 18 14
Volume: 0 0 0
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 11.4% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 0 periods.
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