Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) a trade through $1456.60 will change the main trend to down

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) a trade through $1456.60 will change the main trend to down

Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) a trade through $1456.60 will change the main trend to down

The main trend is up according to the daily swing chart. However, momentum has been trending lower since the formation of the closing price reversal top on December 4 at $1489.90.

A trade through $1456.60 will change the main trend to down. A move through $1489.90 will negate the closing price reversal top and signal a resumption of the uptrend.

The short-term range is $1456.60 to $1489.90. It is currently trading on the weak side of its retracement zone at $1469.30 to $1473.30, making it resistance.

The main range is $1525.20 to $1453.10. Its retracement zone at $1489.20 to $1497.70 is resistance. The lower or 50% level of this range stopped the selling last week at $1489.90.

On the downside, the major target is a 50% level at $1432.00.

Daily Technical Forecast

Based on the early price action and the current price at $1467.10, the direction of the February Comex gold futures contract on Monday is likely to be determined by trader reaction to the uptrending Gann angle at $1464.60.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move over $1464.60 will indicate the presence of buyers. This could trigger a labored rally with potential resistance lined up at $1469.30, $1472.60, $1473.30 and $1475.20. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside with the next targets $1489.20 and $1489.90.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move under $1464.60 will signal the presence of sellers. Additional support angles come in at $1460.60 and $1458.60. The latter is the last potential support angle before the $1456.60 and $1453.10 main bottoms.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.

The projected upper bound is: 1,486.36.

The projected lower bound is: 1,432.34.

The projected closing price is: 1,459.35.

Candlesticks

A white body occurred (because prices closed higher than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 6 white candles and 4 black candles for a net of 2 white candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.

An inverted hammer occurred. If this occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=) it implies a reversal. Look for a confirmation of the reversal on the bar.

A long upper shadow occurred. This is typically a bearish signal (particularly when it occurs near a high price level, at resistance level, or when the security is overbought).

An on-neck line occurred. This is a bearish pattern where prices should move lower when the white candlestick’s (i.e., the most recent) low is penetrated.

A shooting star occurred (a shooting star has a small real body near the bottom of the candle and a long upper shadow). During an uptrend the long upper shadow indicates that the bears are gaining control and a top may occur.

A spinning top occurred (a spinning top is a candle with a small real body). Spinning tops identify a session in which there is little price action (as defined by the difference between the open and the close). During a rally or near new highs, a spinning top can be a sign that prices are losing momentum and the bulls may be in trouble.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 34.7122. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a sell 3 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 43.22. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 73 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -39. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a sell 1 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 0.093 at 1,459.600. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 62% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1,459.0901,465.4001,458.4501,459.600 85,701
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1,464.58 1,481.13 1,405.60
Volatility: 10 12 14
Volume: 8,570 1,714 429

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 3.8% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is extremely low when compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. There is a good possibility that there will be an increase in volatility along with sharp price fluctuations in the near future. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 22 periods.

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