Geopolitics lifts Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X) prices
Gold prices moved higher on Thursday pushing through resistance which is now support seen near the 50-day moving average at 1,303. Additional support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,295. Resistance is seen near a downward sloping trend line that connects the highs in April of 2018 to the highs in February of 2019 and comes in near 1,345.
Medium term momentum is poised to turn positive as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) index is poised to generate a crossover buy signal. This occurs as the MACD line (the 12-day moving average minus the 26-day moving average) crosses above the MACD signal line (the 9-day moving average of the MACD line). The MACD histogram is printing in the red with a rising trajectory which points to accelerating positive momentum and higher prices.
The fast stochastic recently generated a crossover buy signal, which also points to accelerating positive momentum. The trajectory of the fast stochastic is pointing to accelerating positive momentum. The current reading of 37, is above the oversold trigger level and moving to the middle of the neutral range.
Overall, the bias in prices is: Sideways.
The projected upper bound is: 1,321.02.
The projected lower bound is: 1,275.71.
The projected closing price is: 1,298.37.
A black body occurred (because prices closed lower than they opened).
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 25 white candles and 25 black candles.
An engulfing bearish line occurred (where a black candle’s real body completely contains the previous white candle’s real body). The engulfing bearish pattern is bearish during an uptrend. It then signifies that the momentum may be shifting from the bulls to the bears.
If the engulfing bearish pattern occurs during a downtrend (which appears to be the case with PREC.M.XAU=), it may be a last engulfing bottom which indicates a bullish reversal. The test to see if this is the case is if the next candle closes above the bottom the current (black) candle’s real body.
Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.
One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 80.5725. This is an overbought reading. However, a signal is not generated until the Oscillator crosses below 80 The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 46.74. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 15 period(s) ago.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is -6. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 4 period(s) ago.
The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 12 period(s) ago.
Rex Takasugi – TD Profile
PREC.M.XAU= closed down -10.757 at 1,298.273. Volume was 8,900% above average (trending) and Bollinger Bands were 51% wider than normal.
Open High Low Close Volume___
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period 50-period 200-period
Close: 1,293.98 1,303.50 1,246.65
Volatility: 13 11 11
Volume: 1,044 209 52
Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.
PREC.M.XAU= is currently 4.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is high as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume out of XAU= (bearish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 8 periods.