Fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials may influence the price of Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X)

Fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials may influence the price of Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X)

Fresh comments from Federal Reserve officials may influence the price of Gold 1 OZ (XAU=X)

Fresh comments from a slew of Federal Reserve officials may influence the price of gold as there appears to be a growing dissent at the central bank.

FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST FOR GOLD: NEUTRAL

The price of gold slipped to a fresh monthly-low ($1483) as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)took steps to “help keep the U.S. economy strong,” and it seems as though the central bank will revert to a wait-and-see approach at its next interest rate decision on October 30 after providing “insurance against ongoing risks.”

In turn, market participants may pay increased attention to the slew of fresh remarks from the 2019-voting members as New York Fed President John Williams, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Kansas City Fed President Esther George, Governor Richard Clarida and Governor Randal Quarles are all scheduled to speak over the coming days.

A batch of mixed rhetoric may push market participants to hedge against fiat currencies especially as President Donald Trump tweets “Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve fail again,” and falling interest rates along with the inverting US yield curve may keep gold prices afloat amid the threat of a policy error.

Technical Indicators

Overall, the bias in prices is: Upwards.

The projected upper bound is: 1,559.59.

The projected lower bound is: 1,477.96.

The projected closing price is: 1,518.78.

Candlesticks

A big white candle occurred. This is generally considered bullish, as prices closed significantly higher than they opened. If the candle appears when prices are “low,” it may be the first sign of a bottom. If it occurs when prices are rebounding off of a support area (e.g., a moving average, trendline, or retracement level), the long white candle adds credibility to the support. Similarly, if the candle appears during a breakout above a resistance area, the long white candle adds credibility to the breakout.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 5 white candles and 5 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there have been 24 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 2 black candles.

Momentum Indicators

Momentum is a general term used to describe the speed at which prices move over a given time period. Generally, changes in momentum tend to lead to changes in prices. This expert shows the current values of four popular momentum indicators.

Stochastic Oscillator

One method of interpreting the Stochastic Oscillator is looking for overbought areas (above 80) and oversold areas (below 20). The Stochastic Oscillator is 57.0061. This is not an overbought or oversold reading. The last signal was a buy 5 period(s) ago.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI shows overbought (above 70) and oversold (below 30) areas. The current value of the RSI is 55.67. This is not a topping or bottoming area. A buy or sell signal is generated when the RSI moves out of an overbought/oversold area. The last signal was a sell 17 period(s) ago.

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

The CCI shows overbought (above 100) and oversold (below -100) areas. The current value of the CCI is 10. This is not a topping or bottoming area. The last signal was a buy 6 period(s) ago.

MACD

The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD) gives signals when it crosses its 9 period signal line. The last signal was a sell 16 period(s) ago.

Rex Takasugi – TD Profile

PREC.M.XAU= closed up 17.750 at 1,516.750. Volume was -0% below average (neutral) and Bollinger Bands were 11% narrower than normal.

Open     High      Low     Close     Volume___
1,499.2001,516.8101,497.6001,516.750 0
Technical Outlook 
Short Term: Neutral
Intermediate Term: Bearish
Long Term: Bullish
Moving Averages: 10-period     50-period     200-period
Close: 1,497.81 1,483.80 1,352.64
Volatility: 13 18 14
Volume: 0 0 0

Short-term traders should pay closer attention to buy/sell arrows while intermediate/long-term traders should place greater emphasis on the Bullish or Bearish trend reflected in the lower ribbon.

Summary

PREC.M.XAU= is currently 12.1% above its 200-period moving average and is in an downward trend. Volatility is low as compared to the average volatility over the last 10 periods. Our volume indicators reflect very strong flows of volume into XAU= (bullish). Our trend forecasting oscillators are currently bearish on XAU= and have had this outlook for the last 7 periods.

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