Forex Major Pairs Morning Briefing

Forex Major Pairs Morning Briefing

Forex Major Pairs Morning Briefing


Commentary:.DXY was little changed at 96.73 as it saw some selling pressure after marking a 13-month high in morning trade. President Donald Trump has repeatedly called for a weaker USD in a bid to help US exporters, but his recent trade policies, including the imposition of import tariffs on some Turkish goods, have had the opposite effect of strengthening the world’s #1 Reserve currency. PE

The recap of the US currency market for Thursday, as follows:

  • The US Dollar (.DXY) Index trades little changed at 96.73 after climbing off session lows. Wednesday evening, USD steped back, ceding ground to the RMB Yuan and major currencies in the .DXY basket after it was announced that China’s vice minister of commerce will meet with the US Treasury under secretary for international affairs in late August to discuss trade.  The .DXY has risen 1.7% since last Wednesday.
  • EUR/USD: +0.12% to 1.1359
    • Eurozone June trade surplus EUR22.50-B (expected surplus of EUR18.00 billion; last surplus of EUR16.50 billion)
    • Germany’s July WPI 0.0% M-M (expected 0.5%; last 0.5%); +3.5% Y-Y (last 3.4%)
  • GBP/USD: +0.06% to 1.2703
    • UK’s July Retail Sales +0.7% M-M (expected 0.2%; last -0.5%); +3.5% Y-Y (expected 3.0%; last 2.9%). July Core Retail Sales +0.9% M-M (expected 0.1%; last -0.6%); +3.7% Y-Y (expected 2.8%; last 2.9%)
  • USD/CHF: +0.35% to 0.9969
    • 50-Day MA at 0.9933
  • USD/JPY: +0.18% to 110.88
    • 50-Day MA at 110.98 Japan’s adjusted July trade deficit JPY500-M (expected surplus of JPY200-M; last surplus of JPY800-M). July Imports +14.6% M-M (expected 14.4%; last 2.6%) and July Exports +3.9% Y-Y (expected 6.3%; last 6.7%)
  • USD/CNY: -0.80% to 6.879
    • USD/CNH: -0.99% to 6.873
    • China’s July FDI +2.3% (last 1.1%)
    • RMB Yuan reclaimed Wednesday’s loss
    • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) reportedly banned Shanghai banks from depositing or lending offshore RMB Yuan through the country’s free trade zone. This decision should result in tighter liquidity and a higher cost of shorting the RMB Yuan.
  • USD/INR: -0.21% to 70.11
  • USD/RUB: -0.67% to 66.87
    • CBR Reserves $457.60-B (last $458.00-B)
  • USD/TRY: -1.93% to 5.837
    • The Turkish Lira fell from session high after US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said Turkish officials will face new sanctions if the country does not release Pastor Andrew Brunson in short order.
  • AUD/USD: +0.25% to 0.7257
    • Australia’s July Employment Change -3,900 (expected 15,000; last 58,200) and Full Employment Change 19,300 (last 43,200). July Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.4%; last 5.4%) and July Participation Rate 65.5% (expected 65.7%; last 65.7%)

Have a terrific weekend

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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