FOMC Ties Rate Hikes to Economic Rebound

FOMC Ties Rate Hikes to Economic Rebound

FOMC Ties Rate Hikes to Economic Rebound

The Fed (FOMC) policymakers agreed they should hold off on raising interest rates until they see evidence that a recent economic slowdown was transitory, mins from their 2-3 May policy meeting showed Wednesday.

Nearly all policymakers at that meeting said they favored starting the wind-down of the Fed’s massive holdings of Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities this year.

The view on short-term interest rates, which the mins said was generally shared by the 9 officials who have a vote on policy this year, casts doubt on Wall Street bets for a hike at the 13-14 June policy meeting.

Fed officials made clear their baseline expectation was for a return to stronger economic growth.

The FOMC mins were the latest indication of the Fed’s caution over policy tightening since the central bank began lifting rates from near Zero in December 2015.

“Members generally judged that it would be prudent to await additional evidence indicating that a recent slowdown in the pace of economic activity had been transitory before taking another step in removing accommodation,” according to the FOMC mins.

US economic growth slowed in Q-1, and the wider group of 16 policymakers at this month’s meeting discussed at length why that had happened and why a measure of underlying price gains also fell further below their 2% inflation target.

Many of these policymakers said recent firming of the housing market and business fixed investment were welcome developments, and they generally agreed the slowdown in consumer spending early in the year would likely prove temporary.

The discussion of winding down the Fed’s balance sheet was also framed in the mins in terms of the wider group of policymakers. They said it could possibly be done by halting reinvestment’s of ever-larger amounts of maturing securities, such as through bigger cuts to reinvestment’s every 3 months.

Stay tuned…

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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