Fed’s Report says Recovery will not be Fast

Fed’s Report says Recovery will not be Fast

The Fed’s Beige Book report took the temperature of business activity across its 12 US districts shedding light on the depth of the economic pain generated by The China Virus, which led to an instant and unprecedented downturn.

The Fed’s survey, known as the “Beige Book,” was completed in April, when non-essential businesses were shut down in much of the country through 18 May when some states had started to loosen restrictions.

Economic activity declined in all districts – falling sharply in most,” the Fed said in its report. “Although many contacts expressed hope that overall activity would pick up as businesses reopened, the outlook remained highly uncertain and most contacts were pessimistic about the potential pace of recovery.”

The Fed has acted aggressively to bolster the economy to try to mitigate the effects of the widespread business closures and a surge in job losses. The central bank cut its Key overnight interest rate to near Zero in March, launched a round of open-ended asset purchases and announced a slate of emergency lending tools to support businesses and households.

But uncertainty remains about how scarred businesses will be, despite an easing in lockdown restrictions.

The collection of anecdotal data from the Fed’s districts showed many firms felt the worst of the crisis was behind them, and the hard-hit New York district said there were scattered reports of a nascent pickup in economic activity in early May.

But the report also made clear most businesses were still struggling with the fallout, even with an easing of restrictions.

Contacts cited challenges in bringing employees back to work, including workers’ health concerns, limited access to childcare, and generous unemployment insurance benefits,” the Fed said.

Some of those jobs in the most affected industries such as leisure, travel and hospitality are unlikely to return fast and other businesses are navigating how to accommodate social distancing requirements, which could mean fewer customers. Consumer confidence also remains low.

Contacts are uncertain how fearful consumers will be while the COVID-19 threat remains and how freely consumers will spend after the threat lifts,” the Fed’s contacts in the Philadelphia district noted, referring to the respiratory disease caused by the C-19 coronavirus.

Have a healthy day, Keep the Faith!

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he it the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.