Fed Poll: Americans See Stocks Higher, Consumer Spending Lower

Fed Poll: Americans See Stocks Higher, Consumer Spending Lower

$DIA $SPY $QQQ $RUTX $VXX

US households expect the stock market to go higher in the next 12 months, as their own finances slide, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York poll.

Americans saw better than 50-50 odds of higher stock prices over the next yr for the 1st time since data collection began in Y 2013, according to results of a monthly New York Fed consumer survey collected in April and published Monday.

At the same time, expectations for growth in earnings, total household income and consumer spending all fell to the lowest levels in the survey’s 7-yr history.

The results highlight the disparate impact the C-19 coronavirus chaos is having on the stock market and the labor market.

The S&P 500 Index of shares in large US companies has mostly stabilized about 14% below February’s record high thanks to President Trump’s and the Fed’s aggressive efforts to pump liquidity into financial markets.

In the survey, nearly 32% of respondents said they expected their own financial situations to be worse a year from now, marking the highest level in 7 yrs of data. In February, that number was at 10.5%.

Monday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -109.33 to 24221.99, NAS Comp +71.02 at 9192.36, S&P 500 +0.39 at 2930.19

Volume: Trade on the NYSE came in at 1.0-B/shares exchanged

  • NAS Comp +2.5% YTD
  • S&P 500 -9.3% YTD
  • DJIA -15.1% YTD
  • Russell 2000 -20.8% YTD

HeffX-LTN’s overall technical outlook for the major US stock market indexes is Bullish with a Very Bullish bias in here.

Looking Ahead: Tuesday investors will receive the Consumer Price Index for April, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for April, and the Treasury Budget for April. 

Have a healthy day, Keep the Faith!

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, a polymath, excels, in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analysis in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange, and he it the author of "The Red Roadmaster's Technical Report on the US Major Market Indices, a highly regarded, weekly financial market commentary. He is a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to over a million cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognize Ebeling as an expert.