Fed Needs More Information to Support Rate

Fed Needs More Information to Support Rate

$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $RUTX, $VXX

Tuesday, a Fed policymaker expressed skepticism that an interest rate cut is the right move until there are more signs the economy is moving to a truly weaker path.

“I prefer to gather more information before considering a change in our monetary policy stance,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in remarks prepared for delivery at an economics event in London that answers some colleagues of hers and the White House who are arguing for an immediate rate cut.

Markets also widely expect the central bank’s next move will be a cut by its 30-31 July policy meeting in light of weaker inflation and uncertainties including a US-China trade war.

“It is not clear how effective this policy would be,” Ms. Mester said. “Cutting rates at this juncture could reinforce negative sentiment about a deterioration in the outlook even if this is not the baseline view, and could encourage financial imbalances given the current level of interest rates, which would be counterproductive.”

She does not have a vote on the FOMC this year, but does participate in its deliberations. She said she expects the “resilient” economy to turn in a strong performance again in Y 2019. But “a few” weak job reports, further declines in factory activity, weaker business spending and falling inflation expectations could build a stronger case that the US is moving to a “weak-growth scenario” that could require more stimulus, she said.

After its most recent meeting, the Fed last month released economic projections revealing that nearly half of the 17 policymakers now showed a willingness to lower borrowing costs over the next 6 months. Fed Chairman Powell has said he and his colleagues are “grappling” with whether current risks to the economy warrant a cut of rates currently between 2.25%-2.50%.

Ms. Mester compared the forces at work today to those from Ys 2014 to 2016, when there was a global economic slowdown, a decline in Crude Oil prices and a stronger USD. The Fed raised rates once in December 2015 and once again a year later.

If the expansion seems to remain healthy, “I would favor taking a similar opportunistic approach to the recent softness in the inflation readings instead of trying to proactively move inflation up with rate cuts,” Mester said. “This would mean … keeping the funds rate at current levels for a while to support a gradual rise in inflation and not over-reacting to shocks that might, for a time, move inflation somewhat above 2%.”

Tuesday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA+69.25 at 26786.68, NAS Comp +17.93 at 8109.09, S&P 500 +8.68 at 2973.01

Volume: Trade on the #NYSE came in at 733-M/shares exchanged

NAS Comp +22.2% YTD
S&P 500 +18.6% YTD
Russell 2000 +15.6% YTD
DJIA +14.8% YTD

HeffX-LTN’s overall technical outlook for the major US stock market indexes is Bullish in here.

Have a terrific Holiday week.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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