Fed Must “Tread Carefully” Not to Damage Economy

Fed Must “Tread Carefully” Not to Damage Economy

The Fed’s interest rate increase in December tipped monetary policy into a restrictive setting that may be pushing the economy farther from one of the Fed’s Key goals, James Bullard, President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank, said last week.

Mr. Bullard, in remarks to reporters after an appearance at St. Cloud State University in Minnesota, said that on an inflation-adjusted basis he now views the current federal funds rate as “a little bit restrictive.”

“We are putting downward pressure rather than upward pressure on inflation” that may be drifting further below the Fed’s 2% target, Mr. Bullard said.

He said he expects the Fed to miss that inflation target again in Y 2019, a now-perennial problem that he feels has damaged the central bank’s credibility.

The proper path of interest rates and the correct assessment of policy has been a topic of intense debate in recent months as the Fed aimed to raise rates to a “Neutral” level after a decade of low rates meant to boost the economy.

Following a December rate increase that was a matter of particular controversy, Mr. Bullard is the 1st Fed official to suggest the central bank had in fact overstepped, and may now be actually curbing growth and the rate of price increases even though it does not intend to.

Referring to the steady run of inflation misses, Mr. Bullard said, “I do think it has damaged us to have continually missed on the low side.”

Mr. Bullard, who is a voter on interest rate policy this year, in his speech at St. Cloud State, said the Fed needed to “tread carefully” this year in its decisions.

Compared to the 2% target, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has averaged about 1.6% since Y 2012, roughly what some inflation-protected securities indicate is the expected level in the years ahead.

Meeting or exceeding the targeted inflation level is a core goal of policymakers, who regard a low but steady rise in prices as a sign of economic health, important to keep wages and investment on track.

Have a terrific week.

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Paul Ebeling

Paul A. Ebeling, polymath, excels in diverse fields of knowledge. Pattern Recognition Analyst in Equities, Commodities and Foreign Exchange and author of “The Red Roadmaster’s Technical Report” on the US Major Market Indices™, a highly regarded, weekly financial market letter, he is also a philosopher, issuing insights on a wide range of subjects to a following of over 250,000 cohorts. An international audience of opinion makers, business leaders, and global organizations recognizes Ebeling as an expert.

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