2-H of the Summer season kicks off with Spa and Monza, the 2 most extreme tracks on the F1 calendar in terms of their reward for horsepower and low drag.
In terms of wing choices, the teams will generally opt for their low-downforce packages at Spa, but then an even lower 1-off package for Monza.
In terms of circuit sensitivities, Monza gives the highest reward of all the tracks on the calendar for a reduction in drag, 2nd-highest is Spa.
Typically, a given reduction in drag at Monza would give a lap time improvement 5X that of Monaco.
Spa offers only slightly less reward than Monza. Of the circuits visited prior to Spa, the highest-scoring for drag reduction is Baku, which has a drag sensitivity around 85% that of Monza, 90% that of Spa.
The evidence of the various GPS traces of the season to date suggest that Ferrari have the lowest drag of the Top 3 team cars by a significant margin, with MercedesAMG and Red Bull Racing are closely matched.
That same GPS also suggests that the Ferrari have the most powerful power unit, followed by MercedesAMG, then Honda.
That low drag and high power combination meant that at Hockenheim, the Ferrari was taking 0.7s out of the MercedesAMG on the straights and 0.9s out of the Red Bull Racing Honda. Some of that was then being clawed back through the corners though we did not get to see how it would have played out because of Ferrari’s mechanical failures in qualifying. But the straight-line reward of that power and low drag will be much greater at Spa than at Hockenheim.
To set against that, sector 2 of Spa demands a lot of the car’s downforce, with Spa somewhere in the middle of the table for downforce sensitivity. The Ferrari lacks the usable downforce of either the MercedesAMG or Red Bull Racing.
The Big Q: How much of the lap time MercedesAMG and Red Bull Racing will have lost to Ferrari on the long straights can be clawed back through that downforce-rewarding middle sector?
Monza is much more extreme in its layout, with very little downforce reward compared to other tracks but big reward for power and low drag. Of all the tracks on the calendar, appropriately, as Ferrari’s home venue Monza is, in theory, perfect for the Scuderia, a place where their power and drag advantage are worth more lap time than at any other track and where their lack of downforce is punished less than anywhere else.
That said, a few years ago Ferrari’s special Monza aero package simply did not work. But so long as that mistake can be avoided this race, Ferrari must be seen as the logical Monza favorite and to have a pretty good chance of finally breaking their Y 2019 non-victory at 1 of these 2 races.
Here is last year’s race at Spa in full if you missed it.
Enzo Ferrari’s iconic Italian Supercar manufacturer claimed the title according to the latest Brand Finance Global 500 2019 report launched at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
HeffX-LTN overall technical outlook for RACE is Neutral to Bearish, overhead resistance is at 168.18 and support at 159.59 all Key indicators are flashing Neutral to Bullish in here. Ferrari finished at 160.32, +3.72 Tuesday in NY.
Note: Goldman Sachs upgraded Ferrari to ‘buy‘ from ‘neutral ‘calling the stock’s pullback a good “entry point.” “We upgrade Ferrari from Neutral to Buy, offering 15% upside to our new price targets of 182. Our thesis, outlined in Life of Luxury published last month, is fundamentally unchanged post Ferrari’s in-line 2-Q results. We view the stock’s recent pullback (-7.5% since July 16) as a good entry point in here.
Ferrari will continue to create value in the long term. Ferrari is a quality 1st long term investment, and I see it at 200/share in that frame.
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