Expect US Financial Market to Hold, DJIA 22,000 Next?
$DIA, $SPY, $QQQ, $VXX
The DJIA has risen about 14% since the November 8 Presidential election marking an intrday high of 20,851.33. That’s within 6% of 22,000, the next round number (resistance) that investors and traders are looking at.
“I think 22,000 is what is justified if we get … lower corporate taxes and lower regulation,” Jeremy Siegel said in an interview Tuesday “We should expect a pause and maybe a bit of a consolidation, as we say, before the next run.”
In addition to President Trump’s speech to both houses of Congress Tuesday evening, the Key events for investors include the 10 March report on the jobs market, and 2 inflation reports the following week from the Fed.
FOMC policymakers will meet on 14-15 March to discuss monetary policy. Traders forecast that the FOMC will leave its target rate unchanged at 0.75%.
The Fed forecasts that it will raise borrowing costs over the next couple of years as the recovery from the 2008-2009 recession continues. The central bank held rates near Zero% throughout most of the Hussein-Obama Admin in an effort to boost the economy by encouraging borrowing and spending while punishing America’s savers and pensioners.
Fed policymakers last month forecast that they will approve 3 rate increases in Y 2017 as inflation picks up and joblessness hovers below 5%, possibly indicating the economy has reached full employment. They predict the Fed funds rate will rise from 0.5% now to 1.4% by the end of the year, and to 1.9% by the end of Y 2018.
It “makes sense” to gradually lift interest rates to support the economy, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said on 18 January in prepared remarks to Congess
“Waiting too long to begin moving toward the neutral rate could risk a nasty surprise down the road — either too much inflation, financial instability, or both,” she said.
Tuesday, the major US stock market indexes finished at: DJIA -25.20 at 20812.24, NAS Comp -36.46 at 5825.46, S&P 500-6.11 at 2363.62
Volume: Trade on the NYSE was heavy with 1.64-B/shares exchanged
- NAS Comp +8.2% YTD
- S&P 500 +5.6% YTD
- DJIA +5.3% YTD
- Russell 2000 +2.2% YTD
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for DIA:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bullish (0.28)||Neutral (0.12)||Bullish (0.34)||Bullish (0.38)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for SPY:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bullish (0.36)||Bullish (0.31)||Bullish (0.48)||Bullish (0.29)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for QQQ:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Very Bullish (0.53)||Bullish (0.45)||Very Bullish (0.56)||Very Bullish (0.58)|
|HeffX-LTN Analysis for VXX:||Overall||Short||Intermediate||Long|
|Bearish (-0.35)||Bearish (-0.26)||Bearish (-0.36)||Bearish (-0.42)|