Expect Lower Oil Prices

Expect Lower Oil Prices

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday reported a large build in crude oil inventories and a production decline in the week ending July 27.

According to the Weekly Petroleum Status Report, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories, excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), increased by 3.8 million barrels last week.

The market’s expectation was 2.8 million barrels of crude oil draw. The actual record was a build that surprised the market.

In the previous week ending July 20, EIA reported a draw of 6.1 million barrels. The commercial crude oil inventories excluding SPR was 15.2 percent below the levels of the same week last year.

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 17.48 million barrels per day during last week, which was 195,000 barrels per day higher than the previous week’s average. Refinery input was 72,000 barrels higher than the levels the same week last year.

Over the past four weeks, refinery inputs averaged 17.41 million barrels per day which was 1.4 percent higher than the same four-week period of last year.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.75 million barrels per day last week, maintaining the levels of the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 8.00 million barrels per day, or 0.4 percent higher than the same four-week period last year.

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 1.31 million barrels per day last week, down by 1.37 million barrels per day from the previous week. Large weekly decline in crude oil exports was one of the major reasons of the build in the inventories.

The net imports averaged 6.44 million barrels per day last week, up by 1.35 million barrels per day from the previous week.

Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week, but still about 1.4 percent above the levels of the same week last year. The market expected 1.3 million barrels of gasoline draw.

Distillate fuel inventories increased by 2.98 million barrels last week, but 16.9 percent below the levels of the same week last year. Total commercial petroleum inventories declined by 0.9 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.87 million barrels per day, up by 0.6 percent from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline supplied averaged 9.68 million barrels per day, down by 0.9 percent from the same period last year.

Distillate fuel supplied over the last four-week period averaged 3.93 million barrels per day, down by 5.9 percent from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, jet fuel supplied averaged 1.79 million barrels per day, down by 1.7 percent from the same period last year.

Meanwhile, according to EIA, U.S. crude oil production was 10.9 million barrels per day which was 100,000 barrels per day lower than the previous week.

Oil prices went down on Wednesday after official data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased despite the fact that the analysts were expecting a draw.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for September delivery lost 1.10 U.S. dollars to settle at 67.66 dollars a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while Brent crude for October delivery erased 1.82 dollars to close at 72.39 dollars a barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange.

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S. Jack Heffernan Ph.D. Funds Manager at HEFFX holds a Ph.D. in Economics and brings with him over 25 years of trading experience in Asia and hands on experience in Venture Capital, he has been involved in several start ups that have seen market capitalization over $500m and 1 that reach a peak market cap of $15b. He has managed and overseen start ups in Mining, Shipping, Technology and Financial Services.

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